Bhutan Sells $22M+ in Bitcoin as Mining Costs Surge After Halving
Bhutan moved roughly 284 BTC (about $22.3 million) in two Arkham‑identified transfers to market maker QCP Capital — 184 BTC midweek and 100.8 BTC late last week. The transfers are widely interpreted as preparations to liquidate mined reserves into market liquidity. The Himalayan kingdom launched a state‑backed hydroelectric Bitcoin mining programme in 2019 and its holdings peaked at about 13,295 BTC in October 2024. Since then holdings have fallen to roughly 5,700 BTC after continued disposals. Analysts point to the 2024 halving, which has roughly doubled per‑coin mining costs and materially reduced output (Bhutan mined ~8,200 BTC in 2023), as a primary driver of the sales. The sell‑off coincides with a roughly 43% decline in BTC from its October 2024 all‑time high to below $72,000 amid macro risk, liquidity shifts, stalled U.S. crypto legislation and other sector pressures. Separately, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF investors have largely held positions despite four months of price weakness; cumulative ETF inflows have eased from about $62.1B to ~$55B and some data show three consecutive months of ETF outflows. Key takeaways for traders: (1) sovereign selling from Bhutan trims long‑term reserve supply but can create short‑term selling pressure and higher volatility; (2) rising miner capitulation risk increases downside supply risk if prices stay low; (3) continued spot‑ETF investor retention provides some demand cushion. Watch on‑chain flows to QCP, miner cost curves post‑halving, and ETF flows for near‑term directional cues.
Bearish
The news points to an increase in short‑term selling pressure: a sovereign holder moving 284 BTC to QCP Capital is likely preparing to liquidate mined reserves, adding immediate sell-side supply. Coupled with the 2024 halving, which roughly doubled per‑coin mining costs and reduced output, miner capitulation risk rises — miners or state miners may sell more if prices stay depressed, amplifying downside pressure. Although spot‑ETF holders have so far provided some demand stability (cumulative inflows remain elevated despite recent pullback), three months of ETF outflows and reduced net inflows weaken that support. Net effect for BTC price: greater near‑term downside and higher volatility (bearish). Over the medium to long term, reduced sovereign reserves (from peak holdings) slightly lower available long‑term supply, and persistent ETF demand could limit deeper losses if macro conditions improve, which tempers the bearish view but does not negate likely short‑term pressure.