Binance Hacker’s $1.42B in Bitcoin Outweighs ETF Demand
A Binance-linked hacker holds 18,270 BTC worth about $1.42 billion—roughly 3.2 times the $440.7 million that US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted from October 26 to 29. The Bitcoin has not been sold, but its potential sale adds a significant supply overhang as BTC trades near $77,300.
The attacker has reportedly sold smaller tokens, including UNI, PEPE, ENA and LINK, for about $158 million in ETH. Binance says it has set aside more than $6.34 billion to cover losses, with about $3 billion in stolen funds frozen. The exchange says it is buying replacement assets, primarily altcoins.
Bitcoin fell to $76,500, near its 200-day EMA at $76,465. Traders are watching resistance around $80,000–$80,581 and support at $76,465, with $74,968 a further downside level. A move of the hacker’s BTC to exchanges could intensify selling pressure. The article notes that replacement buying after the 2025 Bybit hack offered only temporary support, although broader market conditions also drove prices lower. Trader Route 2 FI remains bullish enough to buy the dip, while the potential BTC sale remains a near-term risk.
Bearish
The immediate market signal is bearish because the hacker’s 18,270 BTC represents a substantial potential source of supply—about 3.2 times the reported four-day inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs. The coins have not been sold, so this is an overhang rather than confirmed market selling. If they move to exchanges or mixers, traders may anticipate liquidation and sell ahead of it, potentially adding volatility around BTC’s support near the 200-day EMA at $76,465. A daily close below that level would put the September low at $74,968 in focus.
There are offsets. Binance says it has funds to cover the losses and is buying replacement assets, while roughly $3 billion of stolen funds is frozen. However, the stated replacement purchases are focused mainly on stolen altcoins, so they may not directly absorb the hacker’s BTC supply. The Bybit hack offers a cautionary comparison: replacement buying briefly supported ETH, but prices later fell amid a broader market sell-off. That episode does not prove that the hack caused the decline, and the same distinction applies here.
In the short term, traders are likely to monitor whether the BTC begins moving, Binance’s operational updates, ETF flows and price action at support and resistance. A recovery above the 50-day EMA near $80,581 could ease immediate concern; continued ETF inflows and no movement from the hacker would also reduce the perceived risk. Over the longer term, the incident may renew concerns about centralized-exchange custody and encourage interest in decentralized exchanges, but that shift is not guaranteed and does not automatically translate into sustained demand for BTC. The bearish classification reflects the near-term supply risk, not certainty that the hacker will sell or that Bitcoin’s broader trend has changed.