Binance Withdraws 300M XRP; On‑Exchange Supply Nears Record Low—ETF Demand Could Spark Supply Shock
Since October 6, Binance has seen roughly 300 million XRP withdrawn, cutting its on‑exchange XRP reserves to about 2.7 billion tokens — one of the lowest levels on record. On‑chain analysts flagged these outflows on November 27 and interpret much of the movement as holders withdrawing to long‑term custody, reducing exchange liquidity. Exchange‑held XRP as a share of total supply has fallen to this year’s low. Price action is mixed: XRP trades near $2.19 (up ~3.5% over seven days but down ~12% over two weeks and ~17% month‑on‑month). Offsetting signals include a drop in Binance XRP futures open interest to a one‑year low and reported whale sales exceeding 180 million XRP after mid‑November spot XRP ETF launches. Technical analysts identify $2.00 as a key support — holding it would maintain bullish structure; breaking it could open further downside. For traders the core implications are: 1) reduced immediate sell liquidity on exchanges (potentially bullish if demand re‑emerges, especially from institutional ETF flows); 2) continued large‑holder selling and lower futures activity that can mute fast rallies; and 3) increased event risk around ETF inflows and further exchange withdrawals that could amplify price moves. This presents a cautiously bullish medium‑term outlook for XRP but with notable short‑term risks from whale sales and weakened derivatives-driven volatility.
Bullish
Net withdrawals of roughly 300M XRP from Binance materially reduce available exchange supply, a classic bullish indicator if demand holds or increases. The timing near spot XRP ETF launches raises the probability of sustained institutional inflows that could create a supply shock and push prices higher. However, several bearish offsets temper immediate upside: large whale sales (reported >180M XRP) add selling pressure, and futures open interest falling to a one‑year low reduces speculative/leverage-driven momentum that often accelerates rallies. Short‑term price action may therefore be volatile and constrained by sell pressure, but the reduction in exchange liquidity and potential ETF-driven demand support a bullish medium‑term outlook for XRP’s price if withdrawals continue and ETF inflows materialize. Traders should monitor exchange reserves, whale activity, futures open interest, and ETF flow reports for triggers of significant moves.