Bitcoin Tests 100-Day EMA at $111K–$112K as Fees Hit 2011 Lows
Bitcoin is approaching a critical medium-term support level at the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) around $111,000–$112,000. Failure to hold this zone could accelerate the current correction and increase downside pressure on altcoins. On-chain data from Glassnode shows Bitcoin’s daily transaction fees (14-day SMA) have fallen to approximately 3.5 BTC, the lowest since late 2011, signaling weakening demand. Technical indicators highlight a recent rejection at the 50-day EMA, sliding RSI readings and declining buyer volume, all of which favor sellers. Traders should monitor daily closes relative to the 100-day EMA, on-chain metrics and volume patterns to manage risk and prepare for potential deeper retracements if support gives way.
Bearish
The combination of testing a key support (100-day EMA) and transaction fees hitting 14-year lows indicates weakening on-chain demand and growing bearish momentum. Historically, failures to hold major EMAs have led to extended corrections, as seen during 2022’s bear market when breaks below the 100-day EMA preceded deeper declines. The recent rejection at the 50-day EMA, declining RSI and lower buyer volume further confirm seller dominance. In the short term, Bitcoin is vulnerable to a deeper retracement if it closes decisively below $111K–$112K. Long-term recovery hinges on reclaiming these moving averages and a pickup in network activity.