Bitcoin Price Analysis: Merlijn’s 100-Year Pattern Signals $70k Hold or $45k Flush

Crypto analysts Merlijn and Ali Martinez say the Bitcoin price may follow historical, pattern-based timing. Merlijn (via X) claims Bitcoin price is tracking a Jesse Livermore accumulation structure from the 1920s. His levels: a BTC hold above $70,000 would confirm the next leg up; falling below $60,000 suggests accumulation could continue longer. The bullish projection in the chart calls for a rally to about $170,000 (a new all-time high) by end-2026 or start-2027, followed by a potential top and a drop toward $90,000. However, Merlijn also highlights a descending channel with “one move left,” implying another leg down and a potential final flush to $45,000. That flush could then enable a breakout target near $140,000. He notes the $45,000 scenario could be invalidated if BTC holds $65,000 and the descending channel breaks. He also flags “max pain” if BTC loses that key level. Separately, Ali Martinez says the Bitcoin price is entering a “final discount” window before the next bull market. If a specified fractal holds, a “golden entry” window could appear between Oct 6–Oct 16, with a buy zone around $41,500–$45,000. Martinez warns large moves may not happen until Bitcoin price breaks above $70,685 or falls below $65,636. At the time of writing, Bitcoin price is around $70,600, up over 3% on the day (CoinMarketCap data referenced).