Bitcoin Price and NVT Metric Indicate Sustained Bullish Momentum Despite Overheating Risks
Bitcoin continues to exhibit strong bullish momentum, supported by key on-chain indicators. The price recently climbed from approximately $83,000 to an all-time high of $111,970 before retracing to around $108,000. The Advanced Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio surged above the critical +2 standard deviation level, historically signaling the start or prolongation of bullish cycles. Despite this, other data raises caution: Bitcoin’s price temperature hit 2.67, and the MVRV ratio remains below the typical profit-taking threshold, while the NUPL indicator suggests the market has not yet reached peak greed. The Pi Cycle Top indicator has not signaled a market top, implying further potential upside. In the past week and month, Bitcoin gained 4.02% and 15.37% respectively, with network fees spiking over 51% and steady exchange inflow, signaling that holders are not aggressively taking profits. Analysts expect the bull run could continue, with prospects of reclaiming and exceeding the recent all-time high, though macroeconomic factors, such as US trade policy shifts, may trigger short-term corrections. Traders are advised to remain vigilant for possible pullbacks, especially as the price approaches the $120,000 level. Overall, the combination of bullish on-chain indicators with emerging profit-taking risks calls for balanced risk management as Bitcoin maintains its position as the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization.
Bullish
Bitcoin’s surge past a key NVT threshold and strong price appreciation signal an ongoing bullish trend, further supported by healthy user activity and subdued exchange inflows. While several indicators such as MVRV and NUPL suggest caution as the market nears overbought territory, the absence of major profit-taking and the lack of cycle top signals indicate potential for further gains. Short-term corrections remain possible due to macroeconomic influences or rapid profit-taking, but the general market sentiment and on-chain data point to continued optimism in the near term. Traders should carry out careful risk management as the market may remain volatile ahead.