Bitcoin eyes $100K ahead of December FOMC as ETF inflows boost bullish case
Bitcoin briefly touched $93.9K on December 3 before a slight pullback as markets position for the December 9–10 FOMC meeting. Traders assign an ~87% probability to a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut, a development likely to increase liquidity and support risk assets. Strong institutional demand is signalled by recent crypto ETF inflows (about $220m at month-end). If BTC reclaims and holds the $93K–$94K zone, a rally toward $100K becomes plausible; failure to hold current levels or an unexpected Fed outcome could see a short-term drop toward $88K–$89K. The piece frames the outlook as cautiously optimistic: Fed policy will likely be the main price driver in the near term, while ETF flows underpin institutional interest. Disclosure: not investment advice.
Bullish
The article frames a cautiously optimistic outlook for Bitcoin driven by two linked factors: a high market-implied probability of a Fed rate cut (~25 bps) and continued institutional demand via ETF inflows (reported ~$220m). Historically, rate cuts and easier monetary policy expand liquidity, which tends to lift risk assets including BTC; similar episodes in 2020–2021 and during earlier Fed easing saw substantial crypto rallies. ETF inflows add structural demand that can support higher price floors and reduce volatility from retail-only markets. Short-term, Bitcoin faces asymmetric outcomes: a dovish FOMC could trigger a quick push toward $100K, while a neutral or hawkish surprise could prompt a pullback to $88K–$89K. Traders should watch: (1) FOMC statement and dots/rate guidance, (2) macro data between now and the meeting, and (3) continued ETF flow trends and on-chain liquidity metrics. For position sizing, the setup favors bullish exposure ahead of a dovish print but requires stop discipline because Fed surprises have historically produced sharp intraday reversals.