Bitcoin Likely to Stay Above $100K on ETF Flows
Standard Chartered’s Digital Asset Research head Geoffrey Kendrick forecasts that, if current political and economic catalysts hold, Bitcoin may never drop below $100,000 again. He highlights improved US-China trade talks – including potential delays to China’s rare earth export curbs and resumed soybean purchases – as the primary bullish drivers. The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio has rebounded to pre-October levels; a sustained break above 30 would signal a return of market risk appetite. Investors should watch spot Bitcoin ETF inflows: more than $2 billion exited gold ETFs last week, and if half shifts into Bitcoin ETFs, it would confirm renewed bullish sentiment. With crypto ETFs still lagging, Kendrick sees a catch-up opportunity. An anticipated 25 basis-point Fed rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting and tech earnings from firms like Coinbase also support a further rally. A new all-time high would underscore the power of ETF flows over traditional halving cycles.
Bullish
Standard Chartered’s bullish Bitcoin forecast, based on improved US-China trade prospects, a rebound in the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio, and potential $2 billion ETF inflows, indicates robust upward momentum. An expected 25 basis-point Fed rate cut and strong tech earnings further support a near-term rally. In the short term, ETF inflows could drive sharp price gains as market risk appetite returns. Over the long term, sustained ETF demand and macroeconomic catalysts may establish a new price floor above $100K, demonstrating that ETF-driven market dynamics can outpace traditional halving cycles.