Bitcoin Holds $103K as US Small Business Optimism Falls
Bitcoin holds near $103K after U.S. small business optimism fell to a six-month low, dragging risk assets lower. According to the NFIB survey, hiring and sales weakened amid ongoing government shutdown concerns. On the daily chart, BTC/USD trades below the 20-day SMA at $107.5K, with immediate resistance at $116K and support at $102K and $99K. A break below $102K could target $97K–$99K, while a rally above $107.5K may reach $110K. On-chain metrics show declining exchange reserves and steady stablecoin inflows, indicating traders await macro clarity. In the next 30 days, Bitcoin is likely to range between $99K and $110K until the U.S. funding vote. A resolution to the shutdown could spark a relief rally toward $115K–$118K, whereas continued deadlock may push BTC back to $90K. Traders should monitor key levels at $102K and $107.5K.
Bearish
The drop in U.S. small business optimism signals weaker risk appetite and reduced liquidity, historically pressuring non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. Weaker NFIB data amid government shutdown fears creates short-term bearish sentiment as traders step back from risk. Technical consolidation below key resistance at $107.5K also points to a neutral-to-bearish bias, with a possible decline toward $97K–$99K if support at $102K fails. Similar patterns emerged in late 2024 when U.S. economic uncertainty and Fed rate-hike risks led to Bitcoin’s retreat from $60K to $50K. However, the expectation of earlier Fed rate cuts could provide a longer-term tailwind. Overall, the immediate impact skews bearish, while potential policy relief may stabilize markets later. Traders should monitor macro developments and key price levels before committing to directional positions.