Analyst: Bitcoin Follows 1,064‑day Bulls and 364‑day Bears — Next Bottom Projected Oct 2026
A crypto analyst known as Rekt Fencer says Bitcoin’s price history shows a repeating macro cycle: bull runs of roughly 1,064 days followed by corrections of about 364 days. The analyst traced this pattern through the 2015–2017 and 2018–2021 cycles — both showing ~1,064‑day bull phases and ~364‑day bear phases — and applied it to the 2022–2025 cycle. According to the chart, the 2022–2025 bull lasted 1,064 days and peaked when BTC crossed $126,000 on October 6, 2025. Rekt Fencer proposes the subsequent bear phase will run ~364 days (Oct 6, 2025–Oct 5, 2026), targeting a bottom near $38,500 — roughly a 40% decline from levels above $69,000. Key facts: primary subject is Bitcoin (BTC); recurring durations highlighted are 1,064 days (bull) and 364 days (bear); projected bear window Oct 6, 2025–Oct 5, 2026; projected bottom ≈ $38,500. Traders should note the emphasis on historical duration patterns rather than on on‑chain fundamentals, macro liquidity, or event-driven catalysts.
Bearish
Rekt Fencer’s argument implies an imminent or ongoing bear phase with a concrete 364‑day timeframe and a sizable downside target (~$38,500). For traders this is bearish because it frames expectations for a prolonged correction (~40% from recent levels) and increases the probability of risk‑off positioning, reduced leverage, and wider bid‑ask spreads. Historical parallels: the 2017 peak and 2021 peak were both followed by extended drawdowns near the same 364‑day length, during which volatility spiked and liquidity tightened as retail and some institutional participants de‑risked. Short term, the chart‑based forecast could trigger defensive actions (stop‑loss tightening, profit taking, short covering opportunities for nimble traders). It may also increase demand for hedges (puts, inverse futures) and shift flows toward stablecoins and liquid altcoins. Long term, if the time‑based pattern holds, the bear would set the stage for a subsequent ~1,064‑day bull phase, implying accumulation windows for buy‑and‑hold strategies once signs of capitulation appear. Caveats: the thesis is duration‑based and does not account for macro shocks, regulatory events, or structural changes (e.g., ETF flows, on‑chain adoption) that can shorten or lengthen cycles. Traders should combine this timeline view with liquidity indicators, funding rates, open interest, and macro drivers before sizing positions.