Bitcoin Near $107.8K Support; Neutral MVRV and ETF Flows Signal Caution
Bitcoin is trading near the short-term holder cost basis of $107.8K, which offers critical support. The MVRV percentile is neutral at around 39%, and elevated realized profits—driven by whale transactions nearing $4 billion—indicate cautious sentiment. Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETF inflows are cooling, suggesting rotation toward Ethereum. Traders should seek multi-signal confirmation—aligning MVRV, STH SOPR (with the 7-day MA above 1), rebounds from 1–3 month and 3–6 month realized price bands, and net exchange outflows—before entering long positions. A decisive close below the 1–3 month STH band for 2–3 days would invalidate short-term bullish setups.
Neutral
The analysis suggests a neutral impact because Bitcoin is supported near the $107.8K short-term holder cost basis, preventing immediate downside, while the neutral MVRV percentile indicates a balanced risk-reward environment. Cooling spot ETF inflows and significant whale profit-taking point to limited upside and potential rotation toward Ethereum. Traders are advised to wait for multi-indicator confirmation, as similar scenarios in the past saw price consolidations before decisive moves. In the short term, price may trade sideways within the support band; long-term trends will depend on sustained on-chain signal alignment.