Data shows Jane Street did not systematically dump Bitcoin at 10:00 — market flows better explain intraday dips
Claims that Jane Street executes a programmatic daily sell-off of Bitcoin around 10:00 AM ET to force prices down and accumulate BlackRock’s IBIT ETF lack empirical support. The allegation, amplified after Terraform-related litigation and social-media speculation, pointed to apparent 2–3% dips after the U.S. equity open and suggested large IBIT holdings could mask net short exposure. On-chain analysts and derivatives researchers (e.g., Julio Moreno, Alex Krüger) examined trade and on-chain data and found no systematic sell pattern in the 10:00–10:30 AM ET window; year-to-date cumulative returns in that slot were slightly positive. The observed intraday moves align with broader U.S. risk-asset repricing (especially Nasdaq) and common delta-neutral strategies that buy spot while selling futures to capture basis rather than to depress prices. Experts note Bitcoin’s 24/7 global liquidity and the fragmented spot/derivatives ecosystem make sustained control by a single firm unlikely. Other plausible drivers include macro uncertainty, liquidity shifts around U.S. market open, ETF flows, and rotation into sectors such as AI. For traders: treat the Jane Street manipulation narrative cautiously. Monitor intraday flow, exchange order books, funding rates, and ETF flows instead of presuming a single actor is orchestrating daily squeezes. Relevant SEO keywords: Jane Street, Bitcoin, IBIT, ETF flows, market flows, delta-neutral, intraday volatility.
Neutral
The combined reporting and follow-up data analysis reduce the likelihood that a single firm (Jane Street) is systematically dumping BTC at 10:00 AM ET to manipulate price. Empirical checks show no consistent sell pattern in the 10:00–10:30 window and slightly positive cumulative returns year-to-date for that slot. Observed intraday dips correlate with U.S. equity moves (notably Nasdaq) and can be explained by common delta-neutral strategies (buy spot, sell futures), macro-driven repricing, liquidity rotations and ETF flows. Short-term impact: increased trader sensitivity and rumors can amplify intraday volatility and local order-book squeezes, so traders should watch funding rates, basis, ETF creations/redemptions and order-book liquidity — these can cause transient price moves. Long-term impact: the debunking of a single-actor manipulation narrative reduces structural tail-risk from concentrated interference; market structure (global, 24/7 liquidity across venues) and derivatives hedging suggest price formation will remain driven by broad flows and macro conditions rather than a single firm’s repeated programmatic sells. Overall price bias from this news is neutral — it removes a persistent bearish manipulation thesis but does not introduce a clear bullish catalyst.