10-year U.S. Treasury Yield Holds Above 4% Despite Fed Rate‑Cut Expectations — A Headwind for Bitcoin
Bitcoin bulls are facing resistance as the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield remains above 4% despite widespread expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. The Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points at its Dec. 10 meeting, with some banks forecasting further easing into 2026. Normally, rate cuts lower bond yields and weaken the dollar, boosting risk assets including BTC. Instead, the 10-year yield has risen roughly 50 basis points since the Fed’s first cut in mid‑September 2024. Persistent fiscal debt concerns, heavy Treasury supply and sticky inflation expectations are keeping yields elevated. Rising Japanese Government Bond yields and renewed BOJ rate‑hike expectations are also removing a source of global downward pressure on yields. The dollar index has stopped its downtrend and has bounced around the 96–100 range, supported by U.S. economic resilience and markets pricing in easing. For traders, the key takeaways are: elevated real yields and a firmer dollar may cap bitcoin upside; traditional dovish Fed playbooks are less reliable; monitor 10‑year yield moves, dollar index levels (near 96–100), and Fed communications for triggers. Primary keywords: bitcoin, 10‑year Treasury yield, dollar index, Fed rate cuts. Secondary/semantic keywords: bond supply, fiscal debt, JGB yields, inflation expectations, risk assets.
Bearish
Elevated 10‑year Treasury yields and a resilient dollar create a headwind for bitcoin and other risk assets. Historically, dovish Fed signals that lower yields and weaken the dollar have supported sustained crypto rallies; conversely, rising real yields and dollar strength tend to pressure crypto prices as alternative yields improve and risk appetite diminishes. The article notes the 10‑year yield is ~50 bps higher since the first Fed cut in Sept 2024, driven by fiscal supply, sticky inflation expectations and rising JGB yields — factors that are independent of Fed easing and likely to persist near term. For traders this implies higher volatility and limited upside: short term, bitcoin may struggle to break higher until yields roll over or the dollar weakens; tactical trades should watch yield breakpoints (10‑year below 4% would be constructive) and dollar index moves through key levels (96 and 100). In the longer term, a confirmed easing cycle that reduces fiscal pressure or a global disinflation trend could restore the historical dovish‑yields→risk‑asset linkage. Until then, market dynamics favor risk‑off reactions to yield spikes, making the immediate impact bearish.