Bitcoin $124K Peak Isn’t a Top; On-Chain Indicators Neutral
Bitcoin’s recent retreat from a $124,500 record high is unlikely to mark the end of its bull run, according to on-chain analyst Merlijn The Trader. All 30 peak indicators, including the Puell Multiple and MVRV Z-score, are still neutral, suggesting more upside potential.
On-chain data reveals new investors, holding BTC for under a month, are capitulating with average unrealized losses of 3.5%, while short-term holders (1–6 months) maintain aggregated profits of 4.5%. This shakeout, marked by the liquidation of over $70 million in leveraged longs on Binance, has purged weak hands and reset open interest, creating a healthier market structure.
Technically, Bitcoin’s 12% pullback remains above the 20-week EMA near $108,000. A rebound from this dynamic support could drive prices back toward the all-time high above $125,500 and ultimately toward the $150,000 target by year-end. A break below the 20-week EMA, however, risks a deeper correction to the 50-week EMA around $95,300. Traders should watch liquidity clusters at $117,000–$118,000 for potential price magnets and short-covering opportunities.
Bullish
Bitcoin’s retreat from $124,500 mirrors past bull-market corrections of 12–30%, which historically resumed the uptrend. With all 30 peak indicators still neutral—Puell Multiple at 1.39 and MVRV Z-Score away from overheat—and the removal of weak-hand leveraged longs, the market structure has improved. Holding above the 20-week EMA near $108,000 provides dynamic support, while next liquidity bands at $117,000–$118,000 offer near-term price magnets. A rebound could challenge $125,500 and pave the way to $150,000 by year-end, reinforcing a bullish outlook. Similar shakeouts in 2020 and 2023 preceded major rallies. Short-term traders should monitor the 20-week EMA for support and rising open interest for confirmation of renewed buyer demand.