Bitcoin up ~12% in April as S&P hits record; PCE & 21-week EMA in focus
Bitcoin (BTC) gained nearly 12% in April, closing around $77,500 as risk appetite improved across markets.
U.S. stocks rose with strong tech earnings, with the S&P 500 reaching a record near 7,220. Even with a slightly lower close on the day, the move signaled broad investor confidence.
But inflation remains the key swing factor. March PCE came in at 3.5% (highest since Aug 2023), keeping attention on the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and raising sensitivity to upcoming prints. Risk assets, including crypto, still held up.
For traders, the rally is not yet “cleanly confirmed.” While Bitcoin is up about 11.9% on the month, the article notes BTC has not consistently reclaimed the 21-week EMA. Analyst Rekt Capital warns that failure to hold above the 21-week EMA on a weekly close could turn into strong rejection. A retest in the mid-$60,000 area is highlighted as a potential confirmation step.
Key takeaway for Bitcoin traders: momentum is strong, but confirmation likely requires weekly acceptance above the 21-week EMA alongside manageable macro inflation risk.
Neutral
Bitcoin’s monthly momentum is clearly bullish in the tape (up ~11.9% in April, near $77.5k) and supported by a broader risk-on move as the S&P 500 hit record levels on strong tech earnings. However, the article’s key trading constraint is technical: BTC has not consistently reclaimed the 21-week EMA. If weekly closes fail to hold above that level, traders may expect rejection and a pullback toward the mid-$60,000s. That mix—strong macro/risk sentiment but unresolved technical acceptance—leans to neutral for near-term direction until BTC proves strength around the 21-week EMA and upcoming inflation data doesn’t re-tighten financial conditions.