Bitcoin $1M forecasts questioned as 30-year Treasury yields crush upside
Asset manager Bitwise again argues Bitcoin could reach $1.3 million within a decade. However, the article says the “million-dollar” thesis may be too optimistic because it ignores opportunity cost.
Bitcoin is a non-yielding asset. If long-term U.S. Treasuries keep offering high returns, capital has less incentive to rotate into BTC. The 30-year Treasury yield cleared 5% this year and is at its highest level since 2007, which makes “risk-free” alternatives more attractive.
The key market signal discussed is Bitcoin’s performance versus the 30-year yield (BTC/30Y yield). During the 2025 bull cycle, BTC’s dollar price rose (to about $126,000) but the BTC/30Y ratio failed to make a new high versus prior peaks—unlike its USD price. That divergence is framed as evidence that the elevated cost of long-duration capital already weighed on upside.
Technically, the BTC/30Y yield ratio is also said to have broken below a multi-year support line and completed a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern. The article cites Thomas Bulkowski’s historical pattern study, which claims head-and-shoulders ranks among the better-performing bearish setups (with an average decline after confirmation).
Overall, the piece concludes that sustainable upside in BTC may still occur in USD terms, but seven-figure targets likely require a more supportive interest-rate backdrop similar to 2020–2021. For traders, the focus shifts to rates: if 30-year yields remain high, BTC upside may be capped relative to expectations.
Bearish
The article’s core argument is that high long-term U.S. Treasury yields reduce BTC’s attractiveness versus a “risk-free” return, and that the BTC/30Y yield ratio is flashing bearish confirmation (a head-and-shoulders breakdown) after failing to make a new high during the 2025 bull run. That combination—macro headwind plus a deteriorating relative-strength chart—leans bearish for trading.
Short-term, traders may expect weaker follow-through on rallies as rate sensitivity increases. If the 30-year yield stays above ~5%, momentum buyers could struggle to sustain bids, and BTC may trade more like a “rates spread” instrument than a pure narrative asset.
Long-term, the piece doesn’t claim BTC cannot rise in USD terms, but it implies that “$1M+” path requires a friendlier rate regime (similar to 2020–21). Historically, when real yields and long-duration borrowing costs rise, growth/risk assets often underperform or consolidate until yields peak and roll over—so traders may watch for a turn in the yield trend before re-pricing upside targets.
Overall, unless Treasury yields break down materially, the market impact is likely to be bearish relative to lofty BTC price forecasts.