Bitcoin Breaks Short-Term Downtrend; 200-Day, 50-Week Averages to Decide Recovery
Technical commentator Ran Neuner says the cryptocurrency market is showing more constructive signals at the start of the year after Bitcoin cleared a short-term downtrend and moved above its 50-day moving average. Price action that pulled back to test and hold the 50-day MA suggests strengthening momentum. Similar patterns across Ethereum, Solana and XRP, plus rising altcoin performance and falling Bitcoin dominance, point to a gradual return of risk appetite. Key levels to watch are the 200-day moving average (near $107,000) — historically a bull/bear demarcation — and the 50-week average on the weekly chart; falling below the 50-week MA has preceded deeper corrections that retraced toward the 200-week average (around $60,000). Renewed US demand, signalled by a Coinbase premium, could underpin rallies if sustained. Neuner stresses that while technicals and investor behavior hint at recovery, the next tests of long-term averages will determine whether the uptrend is durable. This is not investment advice.
Bullish
The article highlights bullish technical developments: Bitcoin clearing a short-term downtrend and holding above the 50-day MA, plus similar recoveries in ETH, SOL and XRP and rising altcoin performance. These signals point to renewed risk appetite and possible continuation of an uptrend if long-term averages (notably the 200-day MA) are cleared. The Coinbase premium indicating renewed US demand is an additional bullish demand-side factor. However, the analysis is cautious — failure to sustain above the 50-week average or rejection at the 200-day MA would negate the bullish case and could trigger deeper corrections (historically to the 200-week MA near $60k). For traders: short-term bias turns constructive while clear stop levels include the 50-day MA on intraday charts and the 50-week/200-day MAs for trend confirmation. Similar past episodes show that initial breakouts above short-term MAs can lead to rallies if accompanied by broad market participation and sustained demand; absent that, false breakouts have led to sharp retracements.