Bitcoin falls below 200-week EMA, eyes potential 3-day death cross
Bitcoin (BTC) closed the week below the 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a key post-halving confluence level, after three weeks of elevated sell-side volume and weak buy demand. Analyst Rekt Capital warned the weekly close beneath the 200-week EMA risks turning that level into new resistance, potentially triggering a retest of the underside and increasing the probability of further downside — a pattern seen after similar weekly closes in 2018 and 2022. BTC is already down more than 52% from its October peak. Analyst Ali Martinez highlighted the three-day chart where the 50- and 200-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) may form a death cross by late February; historically, such 3-day SMA crossovers preceded additional 45%–52% drawdowns in prior cycles. Traders should watch the 200-week EMA as a structural pivot and the approaching 3-day 50/200 SMA crossover for signals of a potential final leg down. Key keywords: Bitcoin, BTC price, 200-week EMA, 3-day death cross, SMA, sell volume, bear market.
Bearish
The news is structurally bearish. A weekly close below the 200-week EMA removes a widely watched long-term support and increases the probability of a retest of the level as resistance—historically a trigger for renewed downside (noted in 2018 and 2022). The approaching 3-day 50/200 SMA death cross compounds the negative technical outlook: prior occurrences on comparable timeframes preceded large additional drawdowns (45%–52%). Combined with three weeks of elevated sell-volume and weak buy-side response, these indicators suggest higher short-term selling pressure and increased volatility. For traders: expect potential breakdown confirmation on a failed retest of the 200-week EMA and on confirmation of the 3-day death cross; short-term strategies may favour reduced long exposure, tighter stops, or opportunistic shorting on momentum confirmation. Long-term investors should monitor whether the 200-week EMA becomes sustained resistance—if so, it could signal a deeper bear phase. However, if BTC quickly reclaims the EMA with strong volume, the bearish scenario would be invalidated. Historical parallels (2018, 2022) support a cautious stance until clear reclaim or rejection is confirmed.