Why Bitcoin’s 2025 Close Below $100,000 Signals Trouble for Price Action
Bitcoin closed 2025 below $100,000 (around $88,750 at time of report), failing to defend $90,000 after a late-year rally. Analyst Greeny highlighted a bearish engulfing 3-month candlestick that overtook the prior quarterly advance, signaling a possible shift from buyers to sellers. Key resistance zones for Q1 2026 are the previous 3-month candle bottom near $106,700 and the stochastic-related level around $108,000; reclaiming and closing above these levels by the end of March would be required to invalidate the bearish signal. Greeny also noted the 3-month stochastic reached the 80th percentile—an exhaustion zone historically associated with cycle tops—and a red moving average crossing above a blue one below the stochastic band as confirmation of a potential local or bull-cycle peak. Tightened liquidity in late 2025, partly due to Japan’s higher interest rates, coincided with Bitcoin underperformance versus some assets, while gold and silver rose. Traders should watch Q1 closes relative to $106,700–$108,000, the 3-month stochastic behavior, and liquidity conditions, as these will influence whether current weakness turns into a deeper correction or is resolved by a sustainable recovery.
Bearish
The article presents multiple technical and macro signals that point toward downside risk. A rare bearish engulfing on the 3-month candlestick timeframe indicates a potential shift in control from buyers to sellers and creates a new overhead resistance zone (~$106,700–$108,000). The stochastic reaching the 80th percentile on a 3-month basis—an exhaustion reading historically tied to cycle tops—adds weight to a potential end of the current bull phase unless Bitcoin reclaims and closes above the cited levels by end of Q1 2026. Tightening liquidity in late 2025 (e.g., higher rates in Japan) has already pressured risk assets and contributed to BTC underperformance. For traders, this combination suggests higher probability of further downside or prolonged consolidation: short-term risk includes failed relief rallies being rejected at the new ceiling and increased volatility around quarterly closes; medium-to-long-term risk is a deeper correction or extended range until macro liquidity loosens or Bitcoin convincingly reclaims resistance. Similar historical precedents include multi-month bearish engulfing patterns and stochastic exhaustion readings preceding extended corrections in past cycles, where failure to reclaim key levels led to months of consolidation or drawdowns. Risk management should prioritize watching Q1 monthly/quarterly closes, using tighter stops, and sizing positions to account for higher volatility and a bias toward selling strength unless the $106.7K–$108K zone is convincingly reclaimed.