Bitcoin 2025: $100K Ceiling, Miner Sell-Off & Options
Bitcoin’s performance in 2025 has lagged major asset classes, with a modest 5.8% return versus double-digit gains in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. The $100,000 level has emerged as a key resistance, triggering profit-taking by long-term holders and whales. Spot prices trading below the short-term holder cost basis of around $106,100 risk a pullback toward the $97,000 support zone.
Post-halving, rising real yields and operational costs have squeezed miner profitability, turning many miners into net sellers. Softer CPI data have fuelled hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts, but liquidity remains tight and capital continues to favour high-beta AI stocks over crypto. Meanwhile, Bitcoin options open interest has reached record highs, signalling a maturing derivatives market that amplifies intraday volatility.
Overall, Bitcoin is in a late-cycle consolidation: long-term holders are reducing risk, miners are offloading, and short-term buyers are underwater. The $97,000–$100,000 range will be crucial through upcoming Fed meetings. Holding this zone could pave the way for a bullish rebound in early 2026, while a break below may trigger a capitulation similar to past market resets.
Neutral
The news highlights mixed drivers for Bitcoin’s price. On one hand, profit-taking at the $100,000 resistance and post-halving miner sell-offs exert bearish pressure, suggesting a potential pullback toward $97,000. On the other, softer CPI data and record options open interest could support a rebound if the $97,000–$100,000 range holds through the Fed’s meetings. In the short term, expect elevated volatility as derivatives dominate trading. Over the long term, successful defence of key support may lay the groundwork for a bullish trend in early 2026. This balanced outlook points to a neutral impact until clear breaks in either direction occur.