Bitcoin halving cycle: Peter Brandt sees $250K by 2029, warns of 2026 dip
Veteran trader Peter Brandt says Bitcoin (BTC) could reach $250,000 by late 2029, using the four-year BTC halving (miner reward) cycle as the main framework. He argues the next sustained rally may require a prolonged bottom and extended consolidation, meaning a clear bottom might not appear until around September–October 2026.
Brandt does not rule out downside first. In his scenario analysis, BTC could drift sideways or even slide lower before turning up. In the worst case, Bitcoin (BTC) may fall toward $50,000, followed by a stronger rebound that lifts BTC toward $250,000 near the end of 2029.
He also cites historical timing: Bitcoin often peaks about 16–18 months after each halving, while bear markets can take additional time to bottom. As a reference point, after the April 2024 halving, BTC peaked around October 2025 (~18 months). For the next halving expected in 2028, he forecasts the bear market ending around October 2026.
Brandt contrasts this with other analysts who claim the bear market already bottomed in early February near $60,000. Since then, BTC has reportedly risen more than 25% to about $80,300. Brandt stresses his forecast is scenario-based and could change if price action deviates.
Neutral
Brandt’s outlook is mixed for traders: it is structurally bullish for the long run (BTC $250K by late 2029) but explicitly tolerant of near-to-midterm drawdowns (no clear bottom until Sep–Oct 2026; possible retest near $50K). That combination can keep market volatility elevated and encourage defensive positioning or range trading in the coming months, even if the broader cycle narrative remains supportive.
In the short term, his “prolonged bottom/consolidation” view can temper upside follow-through after recent rallies (countering the argument that a full bottom is already in early February). In the long term, the halving-timing framework may reinforce dip-buying and extend bullish sentiment toward the next cycle peak. Netting the two effects—possible downside risk plus long-run upside—this is best classified as neutral for BTC’s immediate trading impact, not a clean bullish or bearish signal.