Bitcoin slides 28% from ATH as ETF outflows, stablecoin drain and holder selling weigh
Bitcoin has fallen about 28% from its October all-time high of $126,000 to roughly $91,000, marking the largest monthly drop since June 2022. Key drivers include roughly $3.5 billion of November outflows from Bitcoin ETFs (the largest since February), a $4.6 billion contraction in stablecoin market cap through Nov. 1, and significant selling by long-term holders. A large leveraged liquidation on Oct. 10 erased about $19 billion of market value and continues to weigh on sentiment. Analysts from 10X Research, Nansen and others say ETF vehicles have shifted from net buyers to sellers and miners, treasuries and institutions have reduced purchases, indicating capital is exiting crypto. The sell-off has been broad: total crypto market cap fell from about $4.28 trillion in early October to roughly $2.99 trillion; Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) declined ~38% and >40% respectively, and miner stocks (RIOT, MARA, IREN) plunged over 30%. Weekly on-chain flows also show meaningful net outflows into fiat. Traders should monitor Bitcoin ETF flows, stablecoin supply changes, miner and treasury selling, long-term holder on-chain activity, and macro catalysts — notably the U.S. Federal Reserve FOMC meeting on Dec. 9 — for near-term volatility and directional clues.
Bearish
The combined evidence points to a bearish outlook for Bitcoin in the near term. Large ETF outflows (~$3.5B), a notable contraction in stablecoin supply (~$4.6B), and sustained selling from long-term holders reduce available buy-side demand and liquidity. The October 10 leveraged liquidation (≈$19B erased) and ongoing weekly net outflows into fiat further amplify downside pressure by forcing stop-losses and discouraging marginal buyers. Institutional demand via ETFs appears to have shifted from net buying to net selling, removing a major source of support that helped push prices to the October ATH. Broader market declines (total crypto market cap down ~30%; ETH and SOL down sharply) indicate risk-off flows across crypto, increasing correlation and downside risk for BTC. Near-term catalysts that could cause further volatility or continued pressure include FOMC decisions (Dec. 9), changes in stablecoin minting/redemptions, visible miner/treasury sales, and large on-chain transfers by long-term holders. Over the medium-to-long term, downside may be capped if ETF infrastructures resume net buying, stablecoin supply stabilizes, or macro conditions (rate cuts) turn markedly more accommodative; however, current on-chain and institutional flows suggest bearish momentum dominates for now.