3-Day ‘Death Cross’ Reappears — Bitcoin Could Drop to $30k–$40k
A three-day moving-average “death cross” signal has reappeared on Bitcoin’s chart and could be confirmed in late February, chartist Ali Martinez warns. Historically, the 50/200 simple moving average crossover on the 3-day timeframe preceded final bear-market capitulations in 2014, 2018 and 2022, each followed by steep additional declines (roughly 45–52%). Bitcoin hit an all-time high near $126,000 in October 2025 and is trading about 48% below that peak (around $66,000 at time of reporting). Martinez says a repeat of past moves could imply a further 30% decline (~$40,000) or a 50% drop (~$30,000). Recent market pressure includes a sharp intra-day $4,000 fall, taker-sell volume spiking to $2.3 billion in an hour, forced long liquidations of ~1,247 BTC (~$81m), and open interest falling to $19.5 billion — factors tied to elevated negative sentiment. The analyst cautions there are no guarantees price will follow historical patterns, but the current structure aligns with setups that preceded prior major downside moves. Key keywords: Bitcoin, death cross, 3-day chart, moving averages, liquidation, open interest.
Bearish
The reappearance of a 3-day death cross (50/200 SMA) is a classic technical warning that has historically preceded final downside capitulations in Bitcoin bear cycles. The article cites concrete past outcomes — additional 45–52% drops after similar signals — and current market data that increase downside risk: a fast $4k intraday drop, a $2.3bn spike in taker-sell volume, ~1,247 BTC (~$81m) of forced long liquidations, and a halving of open interest to $19.5bn. Those factors typically amplify volatility and can trigger cascading liquidations in leveraged futures markets, producing sharper short-term sell-offs. For traders this implies heightened short-term tail risk: consider lowering gross exposure, tightening stops, reducing leverage, or hedging with shorts or options if risk tolerance is limited. Over the medium-to-long term, while the death cross has preceded major lows, it is not a fail-safe timing tool — macro catalysts, liquidity, and on-chain fundamentals can alter outcomes. If price reaches the $30k–$40k range, it could attract accumulation and longer-term buying, potentially establishing a macro bottom over months. In sum: elevated short-term bearish pressure with possible deep but historically transient drawdowns; position sizing and risk management are critical.