Bitcoin hits 3-week low as $14B options expiry and ETF outflows weigh
Bitcoin (BTC) extended its decline on Friday, sliding below $66,000 after roughly $14B of Bitcoin options expired, adding pressure alongside cautious trading and ongoing crypto ETF flows. BTC briefly traded near $65,500, its weakest level since March 2, and was around $66,300 at the time of writing (down ~2% daily, ~6% weekly).
ETF activity remained a key headwind. Investors withdrew $171M from spot Bitcoin ETFs on Thursday, keeping near-term selling pressure elevated. While the monthly picture looks more balanced—March reportedly logged about $1.4B in net inflows after four straight months of outflows—spot demand has not fully stabilized.
On-chain signals were mixed. Santiment data showed wallets holding 10 to 10,000 BTC added 61,568 BTC over the past month, while smaller holders also increased balances, suggesting accumulation even as price weakened.
Analysts highlighted potential oversold conditions. Crypto analyst XO warned March could be only the second month of six consecutive BTC losing months. He suggested that if April sees an early sweep into the $55,000–$60,000 zone, it could set up mean-reversion long opportunities, with the higher-timeframe trend remaining intact unless a clear structural shift appears.
Bearish
This news is net bearish for trading because the catalysts driving price action are dominated by sell-side mechanics: about $14B in Bitcoin options expired and spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $171M outflows on Thursday. Options expiries often produce short-term hedging flows that can intensify downside momentum when positioning is crowded, and persistent ETF outflows typically reinforce the “risk-off” bid/ask imbalance.
That said, the article also notes accumulation signals from large and small wallets, which can limit how far downside extends. Historically, when ETF outflows pressure price but on-chain accumulation rises, markets sometimes consolidate before a rebound—especially once oversold conditions become visible.
Short-term (days): expect volatility and downside drift to remain plausible while ETF outflows continue and market positioning resets after the options expiry. Traders may look for technical levels and oversold-bounce setups.
Medium-term (weeks to early April): the bearish pressure may transition into a tradable range if price revisits the $55K–$60K zone suggested by analyst XO, enabling mean-reversion longs—provided ETF flows stop worsening and no structural breakdown occurs on higher timeframes. Overall, the near-term flow story outweighs the accumulation evidence, keeping the outlook bearish.