Bitcoin Price Forecast: Surge to $312K and 76% Crash
Analyst Mike Alfred projects a Bitcoin price forecast with a rally to around $312,000, based on past bull–bear cycle patterns. He references three historical peaks in 2014, 2018 and 2021 that ended with 80%–84% declines, then applies a 76% drop scenario, forecasting a post-peak correction to approximately $75,000 around 2026. Alfred disputes critics who cite Realized Volatility models as evidence against a $300K peak, arguing volatility evolves unpredictably during major rallies. This Bitcoin price forecast signals potential high volatility ahead, presenting both trading opportunities around a record high and risks in the subsequent crash.
Neutral
Because the forecast outlines both a significant rally to a record high and a deep subsequent crash, the net effect is unclear. In the short term, traders may react positively to the bullish peak projection, driving buying interest and higher volatility. However, the looming 76% correction by 2026 could trigger profit-taking and increased selling pressure, leading to bearish sentiment for the longer term. This dual outlook creates a neutral overall impact, as the bullish and bearish signals balance each other.