Bitcoin Falls 32% After Eric Trump’s ’Unbelievable’ Q4 Prediction — Worst Year-End Drop in Years
Eric Trump’s September prediction that Q4 would be “unbelievable” for crypto proved ironic as Bitcoin fell sharply into year-end. Since October’s peak (~$126,200), BTC declined roughly 32% to a Q4 low near $80,600 and trades around $88,000, marking one of the worst fourth-quarter showings since 2018. Market-wide pain included over $1 trillion wiped from total crypto market cap and altcoin market cap halved. October saw a major leverage unwind with about $19 billion liquidated; funding rates collapsed and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index hit 10 in November. Prominent bullish forecasts (Tom Lee, Standard Chartered, Bernstein) projecting $150k–$200k for Q4 were pushed into 2026. Despite the rout, some analysts (Citibank, Bernstein) still outline bullish scenarios for 2026 with BTC targets between $150,000 and $189,000. Traders should note heightened liquidation risk, low market confidence, and potential for historical-pattern rebounds after weak Q4s, but near-term volatility and downside remain elevated.
Bearish
The article documents a significant Q4 drawdown: BTC down ~32% from October peak, a $1 trillion market-cap loss, and large-scale liquidations (~$19B). Those facts point to elevated downside pressure and fragile market structure, making the immediate trading environment bearish. Key short-term risks: renewed leverage flushes during rallies, collapsing funding rates that favor shorts, and extremely low sentiment (Fear & Greed Index at 10) which can prolong selling. Historically, severe year-end sell-offs (2018, 2022) were eventually followed by recovery, so medium- to long-term bullish scenarios remain plausible — particularly if institutional forecasts and macro tailwinds re-emerge in 2026. For traders: prioritize risk controls (reduced position sizing, tighter stops, avoid over-leveraging), monitor funding rates and liquidation clusters, and watch for technical support near the reported $80k level and sentiment indicators for signs of trend exhaustion. Overall, near-term outlook is bearish due to realized losses and liquidity-driven selling, while longer-term recovery remains possible if market microstructure stabilizes and macro conditions improve.