Bitcoin AVIV Ratio Signals Bullish Cycle Peak Near $330,000
Bitcoin AVIV Ratio and power law model analyses point to a potential cycle top between $220,000 and $330,000. The AVIV Ratio, which tracks active versus realized market capitalization, remains below its historical +3σ peaks that preceded past all-time highs, indicating room for further Bitcoin price growth. A 365-day moving average power law model, with an R² of 0.96 against previous cycles, forecasts 100–200% upside from current levels near $104,000. Institutional accumulation is intensifying: OTC Bitcoin balances have dropped from 166,500 to 137,400 BTC in 2025, while major investors such as BlackRock and Metaplanet boost holdings. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen $128.18 billion in net inflows year-to-date, reducing selling pressure. Together, these on-chain signals and institutional trends suggest sustained bullish momentum for Bitcoin, though traders should monitor volatility and market indicators closely.
Bullish
The combined AVIV Ratio and power law model analyses signal strong upside potential, with projections of 100–200% gains. Institutional accumulation trends—evidenced by declining OTC balances and $128.18 billion in net ETF inflows—underscore robust demand. In the short term, traders may see continued upward momentum as buyers absorb supply. Over the long term, historical precedents at similar metric thresholds suggest that Bitcoin could extend its rally toward the forecasted cycle peak. However, inherent volatility means traders should still use risk management and monitor key on-chain indicators.