Bitcoin traders price 53% odds of sub-$66K BTC by April 24
Bitcoin (BTC) slid to about $65,530 on Friday after broader market risk-off sentiment tied to US economic uncertainty and the Israel–Iran conflict. The move erased over $210M in leveraged bullish Bitcoin futures and left many call options worthless at the April monthly expiry.
Deribit options data show traders are pricing a 53% implied probability that Bitcoin will trade below $66,000 by April 24. The April 24 $66,000 put options traded around 0.0566 BTC (about $3,730), reinforcing the bearish skew.
Options positioning also signals weakening conviction among large “whale” traders: the 30-day Bitcoin options delta skew jumped to 15% (put premium vs calls), compared with a typical balanced range near -6% to +6%. During the Friday expiry, neutral-to-bearish strategies dominated, with about 97% of call options expiring void. Put options at $69,000+ accumulated more than $2B in open interest.
Macro pressure adds fuel. Oil prices rose (WTI around $100) and 5-year Treasury yields climbed to ~4.07%. Investors also remain concerned about the lack of progress on a US Bitcoin Strategic Reserve after David Sacks stepped down as the Crypto and AI czar. A retreat in risk appetite over the weekend could keep volatility elevated, though the article notes implied odds can shift quickly if geopolitical headlines cool.
Keywords: Bitcoin, BTC options, Deribit, macro risk-off, US inflation/treasuries, strategic reserve uncertainty.
Bearish
Bearish. The core signal is options-implied pricing: a 53% chance of BTC staying below $66,000 by April 24, alongside a sharply positive put-call delta skew (15%) and heavy put open interest above $69,000+. This combination typically reflects rising downside hedging and declining confidence that key support will hold.
The sell pressure is reinforced by leverage unwinds (>$210M in bullish leveraged futures wiped) and expiry dynamics (most call options void; bears gaining open interest). Similar patterns have appeared in prior BTC risk-off phases: when macro catalysts (rates/oil/inflation fears) and geopolitical headlines intensify, traders rush to reduce exposure before weekends, and implied probabilities can remain elevated until a clear headline catalyst reverses.
Short-term impact: elevated volatility and continued pressure around the $66,000 level, with weekend/week-beginning gaps possible.
Long-term impact: if the US “Bitcoin Strategic Reserve” remains unclear and policy headlines stay mixed, options markets may continue to demand downside protection, potentially capping rallies. Conversely, the article notes implied odds could improve if geopolitical negotiations (e.g., counter-offers) reduce the headline risk before Monday.