K33: Bitcoin near late‑2022 style bear-market bottom, set for prolonged $60k–$75k consolidation
K33 Research head Vetle Lunde says Bitcoin’s recent violent selloff and subsequent drop in trading activity resemble the late‑2022 bear-market bottom. Key derivatives, ETF flows and on‑chain signals show speculative excess has been flushed: spot volumes fell ~59% week‑over‑week, perpetual futures open interest hit a four‑month low, funding rates remain negative, and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index plunged to an all‑time low of 5. U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs have seen a peak‑to‑trough decline of 103,113 BTC in exposure since October, though over 90% of peak exposure remains in bitcoin terms after a ~50% retrace. K33’s regime model (derivatives, ETF flows, technicals, macro) suggests the market is approaching a cyclical trough. Lunde expects a prolonged consolidation range between $60,000 and $75,000 — an attractive accumulation zone for long‑term investors but likely patience‑testing. Onchain analyst James Check echoed that Bitcoin often moves in short, sharp repricing bursts after long sideways periods, warning against attempting perfect timing. For traders: expect muted returns and rangebound price action in the short to medium term, reduced liquidity and lower leverage; positioning for a multi‑month accumulation may offer opportunity ahead of future breakout phases.
Neutral
The report signals a market regime shift toward a late‑stage bear bottom and prolonged consolidation rather than an imminent reversal. Indicators — steep drop in spot volumes (≈59%), four‑month low in perpetual open interest, negative funding rates, and an extreme Crypto Fear & Greed Index reading — point to deleveraging and reduced speculative activity. K33’s regime model and the noted ~50% retrace support the view that downside pressure has been largely digested, reducing the probability of a deep immediate sell‑off but also limiting near‑term upside. Historical parallels: late‑2022 saw similar liquidation followed by months of rangebound consolidation between $15–20k before the next sustained bull run. Implications for traders: short term — expect muted volatility spikes within a $60k–$75k range, lower liquidity, and thinner order books that can amplify intraday moves; momentum or leverage-dependent strategies are riskier. Medium to long term — current levels may offer a favorable accumulation window for spot buyers and dollar‑cost averaging, but require patience as breakouts historically come in sharp, concentrated bursts. Risk management: reduce directional leverage, monitor funding rates and ETF flows for early signs of renewed demand, and watch on‑chain accumulation metrics to time scaling into positions.