Bitcoin near $60,000: Standard Chartered sees low forming as MSTR, ETFs and liquidations stabilize
Bitcoin (BTC) is down sharply, falling ~14% in seven days and threatening the $60,000 area that many analysts treat as a key support. Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick argues the “low is almost in,” based on three “Ifs” for BTC.
First, Strategy (MSTR) is expected to repeat its 2022 playbook: after selling 32 BTC last week, Kendrick suggests it could buy back materially soon, potentially up to 100x the sold amount if confirmed next Monday.
Second, U.S. spot BTC ETFs look sturdier than feared. Over the past three weeks, net outflows totaled about $5 billion, but cumulative holdings since early-2024 remain roughly flat (around $54.2B; share count ~674k vs ~682k earlier this year), implying more structural support.
Third, leverage stress appears largely flushed: exchanges have liquidated about $1.5B in bitcoin futures bets, similar to January. With BTC already underperforming broader equities, fewer leveraged longs may remain to be forced out.
Technically, the weekly chart is trading close to the 200-week SMA—often where prior bear markets ended—suggesting a bottom may be approaching, though it is not guaranteed. Kendrick’s key takeaway for traders: accumulating near this zone may be preferable to waiting for perfect certainty.
Neutral
The article frames a high-conviction bear-market squeeze narrative but with stabilizing signals. Bitcoin is falling toward $60,000, yet Standard Chartered argues that (1) Strategy’s recent BTC sale may be followed by a fast buyback, (2) U.S. spot BTC ETF holdings are only marginally changed despite recent outflows, and (3) futures liquidation volume (~$1.5B) suggests leveraged longs have largely been purged. The 200-week SMA proximity adds a historical “possible bottom” reference point.
However, the “Ifs” wording matters: ETF outflows are still substantial in the last three weeks, and BTC breaking/holding below $60,000 would still likely trigger additional risk-off and derivative volatility. In similar past cycles, bottoms often form after liquidation peaks, but confirmation still depends on follow-through in price and flows.
Net impact: Neutral-to-cautiously supportive. Traders may see reduced downside pressure from leverage clearing and ETF structural stability, but should remain sensitive to fresh BTC-derivatives stress and whether ETF outflows resume or reverse. Short-term, this can support attempts to stabilize/mean-revert; long-term, it improves odds that the bear phase is nearing completion, but does not remove the risk of a retest lower.