Bitcoin tops $65K as US payrolls drop and Fed hike odds fade
Bitcoin surged above $65,000 after U.S. nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, missing forecasts for a rise of about 80,000–85,000. Revisions also removed a combined 103,000 jobs from May and June, reinforcing signs that hiring demand is easing. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.1%, while annual wage growth slowed to 3.2%.
Traders cut expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hike. Bitcoin rose nearly 2% to around $65,200, reversing earlier selling pressure tied to a possible September hike. Polymarket pricing showed the probability of a rate increase before end-2026 at 56%, down from 77%, while the chance of rates staying unchanged at the September meeting rose to 66% (from about 50% a day earlier).
However, options positioning suggests caution remains. DWF Labs said end-August put options were trading at premiums roughly 50% above calls with similar payout odds, implying downside protection is still being priced in. Analysts noted geopolitical and energy/shipping risks (including Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea) could keep inflation uncertainty elevated, limiting upside momentum.
The next catalyst is the Aug. 12 U.S. CPI report, which may determine whether inflation cools enough to support a push toward $70,000 or whether hotter data revives rate-hike expectations and pressures the $65,000 recovery in Bitcoin.
Neutral
U.S. job cuts (nonfarm payrolls -23,000 vs. ~+80k to +85k expected) are typically supportive for risk assets because they weaken the case for another Fed hike. That translated quickly into Bitcoin jumping above $65K and traders reducing rate-increase probabilities. This is similar to past “soft labor print” episodes where dovish repricing initially benefits BTC.
Yet the reaction is not fully bullish because the article highlights persistent inflation uncertainty tied to energy and shipping/geopolitical risks, and options still show meaningful demand for downside protection (put premiums remain elevated). Historically, when macro data turns softer but inflation drivers remain sticky, BTC can oscillate: it may rally on the rates narrative short term, but upside momentum often slows until CPI confirms the disinflation trend.
In the short term, traders likely keep positioning around the next CPI release (Aug. 12), with volatility elevated and hedging costs relevant. Over the long term, if weaker labor data plus cooler inflation together push the Fed toward easier policy, the path to a higher range (e.g., toward $70K) becomes more durable; if CPI contradicts, the market may revert toward the prior rate-hike pricing and pressure BTC above $65K.