Bitcoin near $65K as whales buy and equities rally ahead of Nvidia earnings
Bitcoin climbed briefly toward $66,000 before settling near $64,900 as equities rallied ahead of Nvidia’s earnings. Traders called the move a relief rally after recent tariff and legal volatility. On-chain data from Material Indicators showed a $4.5 million spot purchase by large investors, interpreted as renewed whale interest. Technicals point to oversold conditions: weekly RSI fell to 25.71 — levels not seen since July 2022 — and BTC is trading roughly 9% above its 200-week exponential moving average (~$58,855), a historically important long-term support. Analysts warned that a daily close below the 200-EMA could turn it into resistance and accelerate downside risk, while others noted a drawn-out bottoming process tied to mining costs and supply-profit metrics. Separately, Strategy Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy) has become the most shorted large-cap US stock, with about 14% of its float sold short following nearly $7 billion of unrealized Bitcoin-linked losses. Market sentiment is being driven by macro catalysts (Nvidia earnings, tariff and Supreme Court developments) rather than political speeches. Key takeaways for traders: 1) Short-term upside driven by risk-on positioning and whale accumulation; 2) Extreme weekly RSI and proximity to the 200-week EMA suggest possible longer-term buying opportunities but with downside risk if 200-EMA is lost; 3) Watch institutional flows, large spot buys, and Nvidia earnings as immediate catalysts.
Neutral
The net market impact is neutral. Bullish elements: whale accumulation (a $4.5m spot buy), a relief rally in risk-on conditions, and BTC trading near historically relevant support (200-week EMA) suggest renewed buying interest and potential for a rebound. Bearish elements: extreme weekly RSI (25.71) signals oversold conditions but also heightened volatility; analysts warn that a daily close below the 200-week EMA could convert the level into resistance and trigger further downside. Institutional pressure on BTC-linked equities (Strategy Inc.) and broader macro uncertainties (tariffs, legal rulings) add downside risk. Short-term trading implication: expect volatility around catalysts (Nvidia earnings, large spot flows); intraday and swing traders can trade relief rallies and monitor whether 200-week EMA holds. Long-term implication: if BTC holds above the 200-week EMA and whale accumulation continues, that supports a constructive recovery thesis; failure below that level would be bearish and could prolong the bear phase. Historical parallels include mid-2022 oversold RSI and rebounds after major capitulation events where large buyers re-entered near long-term moving averages.