Bitcoin steadies at $67K as Iran risks and NFP headline
Bitcoin holds near $67K after two days of losses, with risk sentiment pressured by escalating Iran concerns.
Key geopolitical catalyst: Trump said the Middle East conflict could last 2–3 more weeks and warned Iran will be hit “extremely hard” if no deal is reached. Attention is also on the Strait of Hormuz. The UN is expected to vote on a resolution aimed at enabling passage through the Strait of Hormuz using defensive force.
Rates and inflation backdrop: Oil settled around $111 per barrel (+11% on Thursday, with markets closed Friday). Higher oil can lift inflation expectations, keeping the Fed likely in a “higher for longer” stance. That is typically a headwind for Bitcoin and other risk assets.
US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) focus: Traders expect March job growth of about 60,000 after a February contraction (jobs lost). The unemployment rate is expected to stay near 4.4%. A surprise could influence crypto because crypto trades 24/7 while other markets face Good Friday closures.
Bitcoin technical read: BTC remains in a longer-term downtrend below its falling trendline and the 200-day SMA. It rejected the 50-day SMA; bears may seek a break below $65K to target ~$60K. Bulls would likely need a recovery above ~$69K and then possibly $76K to invalidate the bearish setup.
Bottom line for traders: Bitcoin near $67K is likely to trade as a macro/geopolitical proxy until NFP prints, but the broader technical bias remains cautious.
Bearish
The article frames Bitcoin as stable near $67K, but the drivers are broadly negative for risk assets. Geopolitical escalation around Iran (including potential action related to the Strait of Hormuz) supports a higher-oil narrative, and oil strength tends to lift inflation expectations. That feeds into “rates higher for longer” expectations, which has historically pressured Bitcoin during risk-off and tightening narratives.
At the same time, the setup is not purely bearish because crypto trades through Good Friday closures, so the NFP print can create a short-term volatility window and potentially spark relief trades if payrolls surprise in a way that reduces rate-cut expectations.
Technically, BTC remains in a longer-term downtrend below key moving averages and has shown rejection at the 50-day level. The stated levels ($65K support; ~$60K next downside target; ~$69K for recovery; ~$76K to invalidate the bearish flag) align with a market that is still selling rallies rather than building a fresh uptrend.
Short-term (hours–days): expect headline-driven swings around Iran/oil and NFP because other asset classes are partially closed.
Long-term (weeks): unless geopolitical and inflation pressure eases and BTC regains major trend levels, the broader bias remains bearish due to the existing downtrend structure and the macro constraint from higher rates.