Bitcoin surges above $68K as ETF inflows and US macro data lift risk appetite
Bitcoin (BTC) rallied to a weekly high near $68,600 after a rapid recovery from lows around $62,400 within 24 hours. The rebound was driven by renewed spot-Bitcoin ETF inflows—$257.7 million on Feb. 24, led by Fidelity (~$83M) and BlackRock (~$79M)—which ended five weeks of net redemptions totaling $3.8 billion. Positive macro signals from the US, including comments on easing near-term policy uncertainty and falling core inflation, boosted risk appetite across equities and crypto. Derivatives metrics indicate the move was largely spot-driven: aggregated futures open interest eased from highs above 240,000 BTC to ~235,167 BTC, and funding rates remain slightly negative (-0.0037%), suggesting traders are not aggressively levered long. Cumulative volume delta shows spot buyers underpinning the rally. Options dealers display positive gamma, a condition that can dampen volatility as dealers buy on dips and sell into rallies. Order-book analysis points to strong bid absorption around $60K–$63K, which preceded the ~8% upside move; renewed sell pressure at current levels could trigger a short-term pullback. Key takeaways for traders: ETF flows and macro sentiment are the primary catalysts; leverage has largely been flushed, lowering immediate blow-off risk; funding and open interest imply caution among derivatives traders despite price strength.
Bullish
The article describes a price surge driven primarily by renewed spot-BTC ETF inflows and improved US macro sentiment—both bullish catalysts. ETF net inflows ($257.7M) reversed weeks of redemptions, indicating renewed institutional/spot demand. Derivatives data (declining open interest, slightly negative funding) suggest the rally is not fueled by fresh leveraged long positions, lowering the risk of an immediate volatility spike from forced liquidations. Positive gamma among options dealers tends to dampen volatility, supporting a more orderly rally. Historical parallels: previous BTC rallies led by ETF demand and spot buying (versus leverage-driven squeezes) have sustained strength longer and produced fewer abrupt blow-offs. Short-term implications: higher probability of further upside toward near-term targets (e.g., $70K) while monitoring sell pressure and funding rates for signs of renewed leverage. Long-term implications: sustained ETF inflows and constructive macro data can support continued price appreciation and broader institutional adoption, though macro reversals or a return of aggressive leverage could negate gains. Overall, net impact is bullish but traders should watch order-book resistance, funding rates, and ETF flows for reversal signals.