Bitcoin Bear Market May See 65–70% Drop, Long-Term Bullish
Sigma Capital CEO Vineet Budki warned at the Global Blockchain Congress 2025 in Dubai that Bitcoin could face a 65–70% drawdown in the next bear market. He attributed potential sell-offs to traders’ lack of understanding of Bitcoin’s economic utility, rather than any loss of its fundamental value.
Despite this near-term outlook, Budki remains bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term prospects, forecasting that BTC could exceed $1 million within ten years as real-world use cases and adoption expand. Industry figures remain divided on Bitcoin’s price drivers: BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes says macroeconomic factors now dominate, while Xapo Bank CEO Seamus Rocca maintains that the crypto’s four-year cycle persists.
Growing institutional adoption—financial firms now hold almost 20% of BTC supply—may help dampen volatility, though uncertainty over Bitcoin’s cycle and broader market conditions could still trigger steep drawdowns. Traders should prepare for heightened risk in the next bear phase while watching long-term signals for a sustained bullish trend.
Bearish
Budki’s 65–70% drawdown forecast underscores strong bearish sentiment for Bitcoin’s near-term price, likely intensifying selling and volatility as traders brace for the next bear market. His comments at a high-profile conference add credibility, potentially amplifying market risk-off behavior. In the long run, however, his $1 million price outlook and rising institutional adoption signal solid bullish fundamentals. Growing institutional holdings—approaching 20% of supply—may help stabilize the market over time. Overall, the immediate price impact is bearish, even as structural factors support a longer-term bullish trajectory.