Bitcoin at risk of $70K as $6.25B options expire and spot ETF outflows surge

Published: 2026-05-28 10:34:34 |

Bitcoin slipped toward the $73,000 region after a mix of spot ETF outflows, derivatives pressure, and long liquidations. Data cited in the report shows U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $733M net outflows on Wednesday, with BlackRock’s IBIT accounting for roughly $527.8M. Over the past three weeks, total outflows exceeded $3B, reducing spot demand. Derivatives are adding near-term volatility. Deribit data shows more than $6.25B worth of Bitcoin options expiring on Friday (around 85,679 BTC contracts). Call concentration sits near the $80,000 strike, while heavy put positioning is around $75,000. The reported max pain level is $75,000, and analysts warn bulls may get trapped if price stays below the main strike clusters into settlement. Liquidations intensified: CoinGlass figures referenced nearly $330M in Bitcoin long liquidations over 24 hours, contributing to more than $870M in bullish liquidations across crypto. Traders also face weaker technical signals—Bitcoin rejected higher levels earlier in the month, broke below short-term moving averages, and RSI is near ~35. Key levels highlighted for Bitcoin are $72,000–$70,000 support ahead of expiry. A failure to defend that zone could accelerate a move toward the psychological $70,000 level and beyond (the article mentions a potential mid-$60,000 scenario). Conversely, reclaiming above ~$75,000 may ease liquidation risk.

Bearish

This is assessed as bearish because multiple downside catalysts cluster into the same window. First, spot Bitcoin ETF outflows remove a key source of spot demand; this mirrors prior periods where sustained ETF withdrawals weakened recoveries and left price more dependent on derivatives liquidity. Second, the $6.25B Bitcoin options expiry with put-heavy positioning around $75K and max pain near $75K increases the odds of continued pressure into settlement. Third, the reported $330M Bitcoin long liquidations and ongoing liquidation heatmap concentrations near $71K–$72K typically create a feedback loop: falling price triggers more stops/leveraged unwinds, which then deepens the move. Short-term, traders should expect higher volatility and a likely stress test of the $72K–$70K support zone before/into Friday’s settlement. Long-liquidation risk is highest if funding turns negative and order-book bids weaken. Long-term, the view is slightly less dire only if Bitcoin can keep higher-timeframe structure and spot demand isn’t fully extinguished; however, until ETF outflows stabilize and price reclaims key resistance (around $75K–$80K), the path of least resistance remains downward.