Bitcoin Eyes $76,000 as Strait of Hormuz Calm Lifts Risk
Bitcoin (BTC) is back above $70,000 after a temporary pause in U.S. strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure eased Middle East tensions. Wintermute said BTC rebounded from the low $68,000s to trade above $70,000 and briefly neared $71,000 as oil prices cooled, reducing inflation fears.
The Federal Reserve kept rates at 3.50%–3.75%, but guidance remains restrictive, with expectations of little to no cuts through 2026—an upside limiter for risk assets. Still, the earlier shock had pushed Brent above $112 (multi-year highs) and weighed on markets, contributing to BTC’s roughly 3.4% weekly decline.
ETF and cross-asset signals were mixed. Ethereum (ETH) outperformed during the turbulence and attracted stronger institutional inflows tied to staking yield. In contrast, BTC ETFs saw short-term outflows amid the selloff, even as total flows were described as stable. Gold fell more than 10% for the week, helped by a stronger U.S. dollar and forced liquidations.
Looking ahead, Wintermute flagged the Strait of Hormuz as the next key catalyst. If shipping routes normalize and oil stabilizes, BTC could retest the $74,000–$76,000 resistance zone. If disruptions return, BTC may slip back toward the mid-$60,000s.
Neutral
BTC’s rebound above $70,000 is supported in the near term by easing Middle East tensions and a pullback in oil prices, with Wintermute pointing to potential retesting of the $74,000–$76,000 resistance zone if the Strait of Hormuz stabilizes. However, the Fed’s restrictive stance (few/no cuts through 2026) keeps broader risk appetite capped. At the same time, BTC ETF short-term outflows during the selloff suggest demand is not fully steady, increasing sensitivity to renewed geopolitical headlines. ETH strength versus BTC also hints at rotation rather than a clean, broad risk-on rally. Overall, the setup looks constructive for testing resistance, but downside risk remains if oil and shipping disruption fears return—hence a neutral expected impact on BTC itself.