Bitcoin Nears $76,540 Risk Line as Galaxy Says Bear Market May Be Over
Galaxy Research says Bitcoin may have bottomed in June and entered a long-term accumulation phase, despite BTC recently falling below $80,000. Research head Alex Thorn points to five consecutive weekly closes above the 50-week moving average and a nearly 49% decline since 2024 in monthly transfers of Bitcoin held for at least five years, suggesting reduced selling pressure. CME asset managers’ net long positions have also fallen about 57% from their 2025 peak, while US spot Bitcoin ETFs have added roughly 87,000 BTC since June. However, ETF flows remain volatile, including about $773 million in net outflows on October 22–23 before a $110.3 million inflow on October 26. Galaxy’s thesis would be weakened if Bitcoin closes below the 50-week average, then fails to reclaim it within a month. The cited level was about $76,540 at the time of the report; BTC was around $79,636 on October 27, roughly 3.9% above it. Traders are watching this support and ETF demand, while noting that on-chain transfers do not necessarily mean coins were sold and past technical patterns do not guarantee future gains.
Neutral
The report offers a cautiously constructive long-term signal, but it does not establish a confirmed market reversal. Bitcoin’s repeated weekly closes above the 50-week moving average, lower transfers of long-dormant coins and a reduction in CME net-long positions may indicate that selling pressure and leveraged speculation have eased. Continued ETF holdings growth since June also suggests some longer-term institutional demand remains. These factors could support accumulation and reduce the risk of forced selling over time.
In the short term, however, BTC’s proximity to Galaxy’s cited $76,540 level leaves the market vulnerable to a support test. ETF flows have swung sharply, and Bitcoin remains well below its reported record high. A weekly break below the moving average followed by a month without recovery would weaken the bullish thesis; a brief intraday dip alone would not meet Galaxy’s stated invalidation condition. Traders may therefore treat the level as a risk marker rather than a guaranteed floor, with volatility potentially rising around weekly closes and ETF flow data.
Past recoveries above the 50-week average after extended periods below it provide a historical comparison, but the sample is small and cannot predict this cycle. Also, transfers of old coins are not proof of sales. Overall, the evidence is mixed: it supports a possible longer-term accumulation phase, while near-term price action and inconsistent ETF demand argue against treating the bear market as definitively over.