Bitcoin rebound looks fragile as Coinbase demand fades and ETF outflows grow

Published: 2026-05-23 11:17:03 |

Bitcoin rebounded from the ~$65,000 support area in April and pushed toward ~$77,000, but the structure behind the move looks weaker. New demand data points to a shift toward leverage-led support rather than sustained spot buying. CryptoQuant shows Bitcoin demand slipping to around -120,000 BTC in May, after briefly turning positive in February. This coincides with softer institutional/institution-adjacent flows. Reported U.S.-linked ETF flows also weakened, with outflows cited near ~$105 million (and earlier coverage referenced ~$331 million outflows). Coinbase demand deteriorated further. Coinbase Premium weakened to about -0.098%, described as the strongest selling-pressure signal since February, implying U.S. spot conviction is still lacking. Derivatives add to the caution: open interest rose toward ~$55B, but funding rates cooled as bullish conviction faded. Elevated stablecoin reserves on exchanges suggest liquidity is waiting on stronger confirmation. For traders, Bitcoin may keep “headline” support, but upside durability likely depends on renewed spot demand and re-acceleration of ETF/institutional inflows. Until then, price action may remain sensitive to leverage unwinds and continued ETF/spot weakness.

Bearish

Both articles converge on the same risk: Bitcoin’s rally is not being confirmed by organic spot demand. May demand weakening (toward ~-120,000 BTC) suggests the market is leaning on futures/leveraged positioning rather than durable accumulation. Coinbase Premium turning more negative indicates stronger U.S. spot sell pressure, while ETF outflows add an additional headwind. Derivatives are still elevated (higher open interest), but cooling funding rates imply bullish leverage is losing momentum. Elevated exchange stablecoin reserves also point to liquidity staying on the sidelines. Short term, this combination raises the odds of consolidation or deeper pullbacks if leverage unwinds. Long term, a sustained uptrend likely requires a reversal in ETF/spot flows and a return to positive spot-demand conditions; otherwise, rallies may fade quickly on negative flow prints.