BTC Surges Past $78k as Trump Extends Iran Ceasefire; Quantum PoS Warning Hits ETH/SOL

Bitcoin (BTC) rallied above $78,000 and hit an 11-week high after President Trump said the Iran ceasefire would be extended indefinitely. By Wednesday morning, BTC was up about +2.2% on the day and around +5% on the week, while roughly $240M of leveraged short positions were liquidated. Ether (ETH) rose ~3% to around $2,390, supported by strong ETF inflows (~$43M). On-chain indicators also turned more constructive, with Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss metric returning positive after months. The move comes alongside US policy and market-structure developments. Trump-backed Fed nominee Kevin Warsh faced a Senate Banking Committee hearing covering crypto holdings and Fed independence; markets reacted mildly risk-off for crypto equities earlier. Coinbase’s Independent Advisory Board published a quantum computing risk report warning that proof-of-stake (PoS) consensus mechanisms—especially on Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL)—may face “harvest now, decrypt later” threats. The report argues that quantum advances could force redesigns beyond wallet upgrades. Separately, Kalshi and Polymarket announced plans to launch crypto-related perpetual futures. New York’s Attorney General also sued Coinbase and Gemini over prediction-market offerings, arguing they violate state gambling laws.
Bullish
BTC 的上涨主要由宏观地缘事件驱动:特朗普无限期延长伊朗停火,提升风险偏好并触发空头回补(约 2.4 亿美元清算)——这类“情绪改善+强制平仓”的组合通常在短线形成上行动力。与此同时,ETH 因 ETF 资金流入获得支撑,进一步增强市场风险资产的可持续性。 但需要注意,Coinbase 对 PoS 量子风险的提示更偏中长期“技术性不确定性”:短期未必能压制 BTC 这种流动性主导的行情,却可能让交易者对 ETH/SOL 的相对定价更谨慎,促使对冲需求上升。 类似的市场反应在过去出现过:重大地缘缓和往往先推升 BTC 并带动清算链条,而监管/技术风险更多影响中长期波动率与板块轮动。若后续 ETF 资金与链上指标继续改善,短期偏多;若量子风险叙事被放大或监管诉讼升级,波动可能加大。