Bitcoin July rally +7% as leverage cools; Coldcard theft raises near-term risk
Bitcoin (BTC) closed July up about 7.36% as Fed-hike expectations warmed, US Treasury yields rose, tech stocks fell, and the Coldcard hardware-wallet incident triggered security concerns. The latest view is that the main pressure—forced liquidations—has largely been absorbed after late-June/early-July deleveraging, even after BTC dipped below $58,000.
Derivatives data from Bitfinex highlights that liquidation stress has eased: average daily liquidations have stayed below the more typical $400M–$500M range seen earlier in the year, reducing the likelihood of another wave of mass forced selling. This supports the case for resilience rather than a breakdown of the uptrend.
On security, Galaxy Research estimates Coldcard suffered three attack waves totaling 1,367 BTC stolen (about $89M). Traders will watch whether any stolen funds are later sold/converted, which could add incremental near-term sell pressure, though there is no confirmed direct market impact yet.
For August, BTC trading is expected to be choppy until clearer signals on real yields and spot Bitcoin ETF inflows. The next major catalyst is US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP). Bulls need continued spot ETF net buying and easing real-rate pressure; otherwise, the setup favors defense and volatility trading.
Neutral
BTC’s July strength is supported by easing leverage risk: average liquidations have fallen below the earlier $400M–$500M stress level, implying less forced selling. However, a separate risk factor is rising near-term uncertainty from the estimated Coldcard theft (1,367 BTC). If stolen BTC later hits markets, it could reintroduce sell pressure.
Overall, the net effect on BTC price is balanced. The macro/positioning backdrop (Fed and real yields) and the next catalyst (US NFP) can quickly change sentiment, while the key medium-term driver remains spot Bitcoin ETF inflows. That mix makes the outlook more “range/choppy” than a clear trend reversal—hence neutral for BTC.