Bitcoin Bottom at $80K: 91% Odds, $112K–$118K Rally Ahead
Analyst Astronomer’s capitulation-volume model confirms a high probability of the Bitcoin bottom at $80K. Three consecutive weekly red candles with elevated volume signal this floor with 91% confidence. Historically, eight of 11 such events led to new all-time highs, two saw short-term rallies before declines, and one continued downward. Astronomer forecasts a rally to $118K with 91% odds and a 99% chance of at least $112K. The Bitcoin bottom thesis is underpinned by the NVT golden cross at –1.6, indicating undervaluation and a short-term mean reversion opportunity. Crypto trader Darkfrost warns against excessive leverage after on-chain data recorded the largest net realized loss since the FTX collapse, despite rapid absorption of forced sellers. Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes notes that improved US liquidity and the end of Fed tightening reinforce the $80K–$85K support zone. Traders can consider long positions between $80K and $85K while monitoring market stability for the next leg of the bull market.
Bullish
This news strongly supports a bullish outlook for Bitcoin. The high-confidence bottom signal at $80K, historical precedents of major rallies, and a favorable NVT golden cross suggest both short-term mean reversion and a longer-term uptrend. Improved liquidity conditions and rapid absorption of forced selling add further market stability. While caution on leverage is advised, the overall signal points to renewed buying interest and potential for sustained price gains.