BTC rallies to $80,500; traders watch $81,486 daily close for breakout
Bitcoin (BTC) jumped to around $80,500 on May 6, the highest level in three months, ending a long sideways stretch. The move has pushed BTC back into a key short-term holders’ cost basis zone, where their average losses have narrowed to about 2%.
Traders now focus on $81,486 as the next major resistance and psychological trigger. Analysts say a daily close above roughly $81,500 is the key confirmation. If BTC clears this level, short-term investors may rotate back toward profits, which can reduce near-term sell pressure.
On-chain signals remain supportive for BTC continuation: SOPR rose from 0.99 to 1.097, implying coins are being spent at a profit again. Exchange inflows also cooled sharply after a spike, with deposits falling from about 35,649 BTC (Apr 24) to 3,895 BTC (May 3). Net exchange inflows were close to flat between May 1 and May 3, while exchange reserves increased week-over-week to about 2,685,541 BTC—still something to monitor if demand weakens.
Key trading levels: support near $80,000 and a liquidity/price test area around $79,600. If BTC breaks below $80,000, attention may shift to a newer investor cost basis near $76,500, raising the risk of a failed breakout. Meanwhile, long-term holders remain in profit (~27%) and are not rushing to sell.
Bullish
BTC is reclaiming a key short-term cost band and is pressing into a well-defined resistance at $81,486. The trigger is clear (a daily close near $81,500), which would likely shift short-term holders back toward profit and reduce sell pressure. Supporting signals align: SOPR is above 1 (spending at a profit), exchange inflows have cooled after a prior spike, and net exchange flows were near flat while price held up. However, rising exchange reserves mean traders should still watch for demand deterioration; a breakdown under $80,000 would increase the odds of a move toward a newer investor cost basis near $76,500 and could invalidate the breakout.