Bitcoin Tests $81,000 Support as Selling Pressure Eases
Bitcoin has revisited the $81,000 support area three times, on 9, 12 and 15 October, according to analyst Murphy. The latest decline came as hotter-than-expected US inflation, concerns about tighter Federal Reserve policy and weaker US stocks weighed on risk assets.
On-chain realised-loss data showed smaller losses on the second and third tests than on 9 October, suggesting that short-term, price-sensitive holders are gradually exiting rather than the market experiencing broad panic selling. However, the share of short-term holders in loss is still about 31%, below the historical average of 42.7%. Murphy said this may mean that Bitcoin’s sell-off is not yet complete and further volatility or selling remains possible.
Traders are watching whether realised losses continue to contract. If Bitcoin holds near $81,000 and losses ease, forced selling may be fading and the pullback could be nearing an end. A renewed increase in realised losses would point to further position turnover and downside pressure.
Neutral
The report is neutral overall because it presents evidence of easing selling pressure but does not confirm that Bitcoin has formed a durable bottom. Three tests of the area around $81,000 make this a key near-term level for traders. The declining realised losses across the tests suggest that some price-sensitive holders may already have sold, which could reduce forced selling if the support holds. Similar periods of repeated support tests have often produced sharp moves in either direction, so the number of tests alone is not a reliable bullish signal.
The risk backdrop remains adverse: higher-than-expected US inflation, concern about tighter Federal Reserve policy and weaker equities can weigh on Bitcoin alongside other risk assets. The 31% share of short-term holders in loss, compared with a 42.7% historical average, also leaves open the possibility of further capitulation or volatility. In the short term, traders may watch the $81,000 area and realised-loss data for signs of support failure or seller exhaustion. A hold accompanied by shrinking losses could help stabilize sentiment; a renewed jump in losses could bring more selling and pressure prices lower. Longer term, this report is a snapshot of positioning and on-chain behaviour, not evidence of a change in Bitcoin’s broader fundamentals or trend.