Bitcoin Tests $80,000 as ETF Outflows and Selling Weigh

| chainfeeds.xyz
Bitcoin is testing support near $80,000 as spot Bitcoin ETF outflows, macro uncertainty and selling by recent buyers weigh on the price. Glassnode data puts the average cost for buyers who entered six to 12 months ago near $88,000, with buyers from one to two years ago near $100,000. These levels may act as resistance; a sustained break above $88,000 would suggest buyers are absorbing some of the selling pressure. US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in nearly $3 billion from September 21 to October 6, then recorded about $760 million in net outflows from October 7 onward. ETF holders’ average cost is around $81,500, while Binance order-book bids have clustered near $80,000. A decisive break below that support could trigger liquidations and put the roughly $78,000 True Market Mean in focus. Hotter-than-expected US inflation has also raised expectations of another Federal Reserve rate increase. Some indicators point to easing sell pressure: long-term holders’ realized losses are down about 85% from their August peak, and profitable spending is roughly four times loss-making sales. Bitcoin has also remained above its realized price on daily closes, unlike during the 2018 and 2022 bear markets. Renewed ETF inflows and stronger spot demand would support a recovery, but until then the $80,000 support zone remains vulnerable.
Bearish
The near-term balance of risks for Bitcoin is bearish. ETF outflows have reversed a substantial period of inflows, while cost-basis levels around $88,000 and $100,000 create potential overhead supply. Hotter US inflation and expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening may also weigh on risk appetite. If Bitcoin loses the $80,000 support zone, stop-loss orders and leveraged liquidations could amplify selling and expose the roughly $78,000 True Market Mean. There are mitigating signals: long-term holders’ realized losses have fallen sharply, profitable spending exceeds loss-making sales, and Bitcoin has continued to close above its realized price. These factors may limit sustained downside and suggest that selling pressure is easing. A recovery would be more credible if ETF inflows return and spot demand absorbs supply, particularly if price holds above $80,000 and reclaims $88,000. Until those conditions emerge, traders may treat rebounds cautiously and monitor ETF flows, support levels and liquidation risk. The longer-term picture is less decisively negative than the immediate setup, but the stated indicators do not yet confirm a durable trend reversal.