Bitcoin Nears $90K Recovery as Cathie Wood Upholds $1.5M Bull Case
Bitcoin rallied above $90,000 in late November 2025 as markets priced in higher odds of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts and liquidity returned after the U.S. government shutdown ended. BTC surpassed the $89,600 ETF flow-weighted cost basis, returning many ETF holders to profitability. Market expectations for a 25 basis-point Fed cut on Dec. 10 rose to about 85% from 39% the previous week (CME FedWatch). ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood reiterated a $1.5 million Bitcoin price target for 2030, while also noting a $300,000 bear case, and cited incoming liquidity — roughly $70bn already returned and an estimated $300bn more over several weeks — plus the end of quantitative tightening as key drivers. Despite the rebound, November remained a weak month for BTC (about -17%), its worst November in seven years. The piece also highlights DeFi developments: proposed UK “no gain, no loss” tax treatment for lending/borrowing and liquidity provision, DWF Labs’ $75m institutional fund for scalable projects, and other sector moves such as Balancer’s reimbursement proposal following a hack. Key metrics and themes for traders: BTC price action around $90k, ETF profitability thresholds ($89.6k), Fed rate-cut odds, large expected liquidity inflows, and ongoing institutional and regulatory developments in DeFi.
Bullish
The article presents several bullish drivers for Bitcoin: (1) materially higher market odds of Fed rate cuts (from 39% to ~85%), which historically reduce opportunity cost of holding risk assets and can lift BTC; (2) a sizable liquidity influx tied to the Treasury General Account normalizing (reported $70bn returned with another ~$300bn expected), which increases available capital across asset markets; (3) BTC clearing ETF flow-weighted cost basis ($89.6k), restoring profitability for ETF holders and reducing immediate selling pressure. Cathie Wood’s reiterated $1.5M target adds a strong narrative supporting long-term institutional conviction. DeFi regulatory clarity (UK tax proposals) and fresh institutional funding (DWF Labs) further support market maturation and capital allocation into crypto. Short-term: likely continued volatility but a higher probability of upside continuation as macro expectations firm; traders should watch Fed communications, actual liquidity flow metrics, and ETF flows/volumes near $90k. Long-term: improved liquidity, easing policy and institutional interest are constructive for sustained price appreciation and adoption. Risks that could temper this outlook include disappointing macro data that reverses rate-cut expectations, on-chain outflows, large liquidations near leveraged positions, or regulatory shocks. Overall, net impact is bullish but contingent on macro follow-through and tangible liquidity delivery.