Fed rate-cut bets lift risk assets but weak BTC ETF flows and cautious derivatives cap Bitcoin at $91K
Bitcoin remained stuck near $91,000 as rising Fed rate-cut expectations buoyed stocks and gold but failed to spark a decisive BTC rally. CME FedWatch priced a Dec. 10 rate cut at 87% (up from 71% a week earlier). US labour data showing rising continuing claims contributed to expectations of looser policy. Derivatives metrics signalled caution: monthly futures basis held at a modest 4% premium (below typical 5–10% under normal carry), and put option volumes outpaced calls, indicating demand for downside protection. ETF flows were muted, with just $70 million net inflows in the week ending Nov. 28, and major corporate reserve holders showed no recent accumulation; SpaceX moved 1,163 BTC to new addresses, sparking sell speculation. Macro positives — Trump’s tax-cut talk and AI sector confidence after Google TPU progress — helped gold and equities; however Bitcoin’s path above $90k and toward $100k depends on renewed ETF inflows, easing risk aversion in derivatives, and potential liquidity injections. Key takeaways for traders: watch BTC spot at $90k as immediate support, monitor ETF weekly flows and put-to-call option ratios for shifts in sentiment, and track large on-chain movements from custodial addresses that could signal supply pressure.
Neutral
The article outlines mixed signals that justify a neutral market classification. Positive macro factors — rising Fed rate-cut odds, stronger equities and gold, and improved AI-sector sentiment — increase risk appetite, which can support Bitcoin. However, leading crypto-specific indicators remain cautious: futures basis is lower-than-normal, put option volumes exceed calls, ETF inflows are stagnant ($70M for the week), and large on-chain transfers (1,163 BTC from SpaceX) raise potential supply concerns. Historically, sustained BTC rallies above prior highs have required steady ETF inflows and falling demand for downside protection; examples include past 2021–2023 episodes where strong ETF/OTC demand and declining put skew coincided with multi-week advances. Short-term impact: likely range-bound trading with support around $90k and resistance near $93k–$100k until sentiment shifts. Traders should watch weekly ETF flows, put-to-call ratios, futures basis (funding/premia), and large custodial transfers for directional clues. Long-term impact: if ETF inflows resume and derivatives skew normalizes, bullish momentum could reassert; if inflows stay weak and large holders sell, downside pressure and volatility could persist.