Galaxy Research: Bitcoin Must Close Above $93,389 by 2025 Year-End to Show Positive Returns
Galaxy Research head Alex Thorn said Bitcoin needs a year-end close above $93,389 to deliver positive returns for 2025. Thorn noted muted sentiment heading into year-end and said some portfolio managers may only begin reallocating in early 2026, depending on macroeconomic signals and technicals. Despite a weak year-end, US Bitcoin ETPs showed resilience: inflows peaked around $62 billion in October and fell by only about 9%, indicating maturation of the asset class. Galaxy also suggested Bitcoin could gain a ‘‘gold-like’’ depreciation-hedge narrative as large allocators and central banks adjust allocations. Key figures: $93,389 year-end threshold, ~$62 billion peak ETP inflows, ~9% retreat in inflows.
Neutral
The news is neutral because it provides a conditional price threshold rather than reporting a definitive market-moving event. Galaxy Research sets a clear technical benchmark ($93,389 year-end close) required for Bitcoin to show positive 2025 returns — this is informative for positioning but not an immediate catalyst. The piece highlights resilient institutional demand (US Bitcoin ETP inflows peaking near $62B with only ~9% drawdown), which is mildly bullish for medium-to-long-term stability, but tempered by muted sentiment and macro uncertainty that could delay reallocations until early 2026. Short-term impact: likely limited — traders may use the $93,389 level as a reference for positioning, stop placement, or options strikes, but absence of a specific trigger reduces volatility. Medium- to long-term impact: institutional inflows and the potential ‘‘gold-like’’ hedge narrative could support higher structural demand, which is bullish if macro conditions permit. Historical parallels: similar conditional analyses (e.g., year-end price thresholds from research desks) typically influence derivative pricing and risk management but do not by themselves shift spot trends unless accompanied by macro shifts or large flows — as seen in 2020–21 when institutional ETF/ETP adoption and macro liquidity produced sustained rallies. Overall, the note is actionable as a roadmap for traders monitoring year-end close and ETP flow metrics, but it does not constitute an outright bullish or bearish catalyst on its own.