Bitcoin Eyes $99K as Short-Term Holders Reduce Selling Pressure
Bitcoin rebounded from a cycle low near $80K to about $95K–$97K, cutting short-term holder (STH) unrealized losses from a record $110B in November to roughly $65B and lowering average STH losses to about 6.4%. Data from Checkonchain and CryptoQuant show STH Sell-Side Risk and SOPR improved, suggesting many weaker hands have already exited and forced selling has eased. Technically, BTC traded near $95,147 at press time, moved above its 20- and 50-day EMAs, and was testing the 100-day EMA (~$95,942); a sustained break above the 100-day EMA could open a move toward the 200-day EMA near $99,423, while failure could retest support near $92,388. Momentum indicators (Chande Momentum Oscillator rising from 16 to 52) point to strengthening upside. For traders: reduced short-term selling pressure means incremental demand may push price higher more easily, but immediate confirmation requires holding above the 100-day EMA and managing risk around the $94K–$92K support zone.
Bullish
The article signals a bullish tilt driven by deterioration of forced selling and improving holder metrics. Key on-chain metrics—STH unrealized losses falling from $110B to ~$65B, STH Sell-Side Risk near historical lows, and SOPR improving to ~1.0—indicate that many weak hands have been flushed out and recent losses were absorbed. Technically, BTC is above short-term EMAs, testing the 100-day EMA; a sustained break would likely push toward the 200-day EMA (~$99.4K). Momentum (Chande oscillator rising) supports upside continuation. Historically, periods where short-term holder stress eased (e.g., after major drawdowns) have often preceded rallies as reduced selling makes prices more responsive to incremental demand. Short-term implication: higher probability of upward moves and lower risk of panic dumps, but traders should watch the 100-day EMA and $94K–$92K support for confirmation and risk management. Long-term implication: if the absorption of STH losses persists and on-chain health continues improving, it supports a constructive medium-term trend toward prior highs. However, absence of decisive break above key resistance or negative macro/news shocks could still prompt pullbacks, so position sizing and stop placement remain important.