Bitcoin steadies above $65,000 as Iran-Oman Hormuz talks ease risk fears
Bitcoin is holding above $65,000, up about 0.5% to $65,209, while Ether gains to around $1,925. The move tracks a ~0.45% rise in Nasdaq 100 futures, as reports suggest Iran may strike a deal with Oman to reopen the Strait of Hormuz—reducing geopolitical risk pressure on broader markets.
Traders are still selective in alts. The altcoin season indicator sits at 37/100, implying rotation beyond Bitcoin is limited unless BTC breaks out toward the $68,000–$72,000 zone. Alt performance remains cautious: Pump.fun (PUMP) leads with a ~5.4% gain.
Derivatives signals show cautious bullish positioning. In crypto futures, the long-short ratio for taker volume flips bullish (52% longs). Bitcoin open interest slips back below 750K BTC, and funding remains positive, suggesting upside interest is present but not yet broad. ETH open interest continues to fall to ~13.35M, indicating ongoing de-risking in Ether futures.
Other contract activity highlights include SOL open interest rebounding to ~64.6M and Monero (XMR) leading with both price strength (+~5%) and a notable jump in futures open interest (+~6%) alongside the highest funding among majors.
Overall, the market looks stabilizing rather than chasing momentum, with liquidations down ~32% to about $85M.
Bullish
This news is bullish for crypto risk sentiment in the short term. The key trigger is the Iran–Oman deal talk around reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which eased broader risk anxiety and helped lift Nasdaq 100 futures. That macro impulse aligns with Bitcoin holding above $65,000, supporting traders’ willingness to maintain long exposure.
On the derivatives side, the long-short ratio for taker volume flipping bullish is consistent with constructive positioning. Even though Bitcoin open interest is still not expanding strongly (OI slipped under 750K BTC), positive funding and positive OI-adjusted CVD suggest the existing longs still have “buying pressure” behind them—an early-stage bullish setup.
However, the market is not fully rotating into alts yet. The altcoin season indicator at 37/100 and falling ETH open interest point to selective risk-taking. Historically, this pattern resembles early BTC-led rebounds: BTC stabilizes first, while capital rotation to smaller tokens typically requires a clearer BTC breakout (here, toward $68k–$72k). Without that, upside may stay concentrated.
Longer term, if geopolitical de-risking persists and BTC breaks its range, the probability of sustained rotation improves. Conversely, if Hormuz concerns re-escalate or BTC fails to reclaim the higher resistance band, the “stabilization” could fade and leverage could unwind quickly—particularly given that volatility expectations (put/call skew) still imply downside hedging demand.